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Kumla vs Herrestads Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Kumla

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Herrestads

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.3%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.5%1-111.1%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 37.7% 2.65 +29.3%

Draw 24.1% 27.4% 3.65 -7.2%

Away win 27.1% 44.4% 2.25 -23.4%

Over 2.5 60.1% 67.6% 1.48 -11.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

BTTS 61.0% 71.4% 1.40 -14.6%

Home O1.5 52.1% 51.3% 1.95 +1.6%

Away O1.5 32.4% 55.6% 1.80 -41.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.0%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kumla1.7

Herrestads1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KUMLA · PPG 1.25

HERRESTADS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Kumla (H) 48.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +29.3%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.2%

Herrestads (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kumla face Herrestads in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kumla a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Herrestads 27%, so Kumla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kumla and 1.2 for Herrestads (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kumla are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Herrestads. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Kumla vs Herrestads Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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