Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 / Ulfstind vs Floya

Ulfstind vs Floya Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 10 ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 17:00

Ulfstind

PPG 0.75 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Floya

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 82.4% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.6%0-23.0%0-33.6%0-4+8.4%1 1-00.8%1-12.9%1-25.3%1-36.4%1-4+14.8%2 2-00.7%2-12.6%2-24.7%2-35.6%2-4+13.1%3 3-00.4%3-11.5%3-22.8%3-33.3%3-4+7.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-11.0%4+-21.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+5.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.8% 18.2% 5.50 -4.6%

Draw 18.0% 18.2% 5.50 -0.6%

Away win 65.2% 75.2% 1.33 -13.3%

Over 2.5 80.9% 83.3% 1.20 -2.9%

Over 3.5 58.3% 66.2% 1.51 -12.0%

BTTS 67.2% 73.5% 1.36 -8.6%

Home O1.5 54.8% 42.0% 2.38 +30.4%

Away O1.5 82.4% 84.7% 1.18 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob67.2%

A 65% / xG 1.8-3.6 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.4%

#2 1–4 5.8%

#3 2–3 5.6%

#4 1–2 5.3%

#5 2–4 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulfstind1.8

Floya3.6

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ULFSTIND · PPG 0.75

FLOYA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ulfstind (H) 16.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -4.6%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -0.6%

Floya (A) 65.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulfstind face Floya in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulfstind a 17% chance, the draw 18% and Floya 65%, so Floya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Ulfstind and 3.6 for Floya (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulfstind are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Floya. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Ulfstind vs Floya Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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