Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 / Fløya vs Lillestrøm II

Fløya vs Lillestrøm II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 14:30

Fløya

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lillestrøm II

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.9%0-21.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-02.7%1-15.1%1-24.9%1-33.1%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.6%2-16.9%2-26.6%2-34.2%2-4+3.1%3 3-03.3%3-16.3%3-26.0%3-33.8%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-18.1%4+-27.8%4+-34.9%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% — — —

Draw 20.6% — — —

Away win 26.6% — — —

Over 2.5 75.4% — — —

Over 3.5 53.4% — — —

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.5%

H 53% / xG 2.7-1.9 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.9%

#2 2–2 6.6%

#3 3–1 6.3%

#4 3–2 6.0%

#5 1–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fløya2.7

Lillestrøm II1.9

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FLØYA · PPG 2.17

LILLESTRØM II · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fløya (H) 52.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lillestrøm II (A) 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fløya face Lillestrøm II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fløya a 53% chance, the draw 21% and Lillestrøm II 27%, so Fløya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Fløya and 1.9 for Lillestrøm II (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fløya are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.80 for Lillestrøm II.

Fløya vs Lillestrøm II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions