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Harstad vs Fauske Sprint Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:00

Harstad

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fauske Sprint

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.8%0-20.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-01.5%1-12.8%1-22.6%1-31.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-02.8%2-15.1%2-24.7%2-32.9%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.3%3-16.2%3-25.7%3-33.5%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-114.1%4+-213.1%4+-38.1%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% — — —

Draw 16.6% — — —

Away win 19.3% — — —

Over 2.5 79.6% — — —

Over 3.5 61.3% — — —

BTTS 69.5% — — —

Home O1.5 77.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.5%

H 64% / xG 3.6-1.9 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.2%

#2 3–2 5.7%

#3 4–1 5.6%

#4 4–2 5.2%

#5 2–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harstad3.6

Fauske Sprint1.9

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HARSTAD · PPG 2.00

FAUSKE SPRINT · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

xG gap +1.76 for Home, but form 2.00 vs 1.83 doesn't confirm

Win probability 1X2

Harstad (H) 64.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fauske Sprint (A) 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harstad face Fauske Sprint in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harstad a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Fauske Sprint 19%, so Harstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Harstad and 1.9 for Fauske Sprint (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harstad are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Fauske Sprint.

Harstad vs Fauske Sprint Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

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