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Skjetten vs Fauske/Sprint Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 15:00

Skjetten

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Fauske/Sprint

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 87.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3% — a clear edge.

+38.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.7%0-21.3%0-31.6%0-4+3.7%1 1-00.5%1-11.9%1-23.4%1-34.1%1-4+9.5%2 2-00.7%2-12.4%2-24.4%2-35.3%2-4+12.3%3 3-00.6%3-12.1%3-23.8%3-34.6%3-4+10.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-12.6%4+-24.6%4+-35.6%4+-4+12.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 50.0% 2.00 -27.1%

Draw 19.7% 24.4% 4.10 -11.5%

Away win 52.9% 37.0% 2.70 +42.8%

Over 2.5 80.0% 83.3% 1.20 -4.0%

Over 3.5 60.8% 66.2% 1.51 -8.2%

BTTS 65.9% 84.0% 1.19 -21.6%

Home O1.5 73.1% 71.4% 1.40 +2.3%

Away O1.5 87.6% 63.3% 1.58 +38.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob65.9%

A 53% / xG 2.6-3.6 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3✓ 5.3%

#2 2–4 4.8%

#3 3–3 4.6%

#4 2–2 4.4%

#5 3–4 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skjetten2.6

Fauske/Sprint3.6

COMBINED 6.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 60.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SKJETTEN · PPG 0.75

FAUSKE/SPRINT · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Skjetten (H) 27.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.1%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.5%

Fauske/Sprint (A) 52.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +42.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skjetten face Fauske/Sprint in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skjetten a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Fauske/Sprint 53%, so Fauske/Sprint are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Skjetten and 3.6 for Fauske/Sprint (6.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skjetten are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Fauske/Sprint. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Skjetten vs Fauske/Sprint Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions