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York City vs Yeovil Town Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

York City

PPG 2.36 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Yeovil Town

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 84.6% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-11.7%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.1%1-15.0%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-17.5%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.1%3-17.5%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-019.0%4+-111.7%4+-23.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.6% 90.1% 1.11 -6.1%

Draw 10.5% 14.7% 6.80 -28.6%

Away win 4.8% 5.6% 18.00 -13.6%

Over 2.5 70.0% 74.1% 1.35 -5.5%

Over 3.5 48.8% 54.1% 1.85 -9.7%

BTTS 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.7%

H 85% / xG 3.0-0.6 / O2.5 70% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 3–0✓ 12.1%

#3 4–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

York City3.0

Yeovil Town0.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.0% · O3.5 PROB 48.8%

Form & verdict PPG

YORK CITY · PPG 2.36

YEOVIL TOWN · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

York City (H) 84.6%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -6.1%

Draw 10.5%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -28.6%

Yeovil Town (A) 4.8%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

York City face Yeovil Town in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives York City a 85% chance, the draw 11% and Yeovil Town 5%, so York City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for York City and 0.6 for Yeovil Town (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, York City are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.86 for Yeovil Town. This match finished 3-0.

York City vs Yeovil Town Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League Predictions