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AFC Fylde vs Worthing Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

AFC Fylde

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

UPCOMING

Worthing

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.1%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.2%1-18.7%1-26.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.7%3-16.6%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.7%4+-24.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 57.1% 1.75 -9.3%

Draw 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

Away win 27.1% 26.3% 3.80 +1.8%

Over 2.5 66.8% 66.7% 1.50 +0.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 45.5% 2.20 -1.2%

BTTS 63.5% 66.7% 1.50 -4.8%

Home O1.5 60.2% 63.7% 1.57 -5.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 38.2% 2.62 +10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 6.2%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Fylde2.1

Worthing1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC FYLDE · PPG 1.64

WORTHING · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AFC Fylde (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -9.3%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.9%

Worthing (A) 27.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Fylde face Worthing in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Fylde a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Worthing 27%, so AFC Fylde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for AFC Fylde and 1.4 for Worthing (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Fylde are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.50 for Worthing. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.6%.

AFC Fylde vs Worthing Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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