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Wealdstone vs Kidderminster Harriers Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Wealdstone

PPG 1.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDW

UPCOMING

Kidderminster Harriers

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.6%0-24.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.1%1-111.7%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.6%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 43.5% 2.30 +1.9%

Draw 24.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.8%

Away win 31.2% 35.7% 2.80 -12.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

BTTS 55.9% 66.7% 1.50 -16.2%

Home O1.5 43.5% 54.6% 1.83 -20.4%

Away O1.5 38.5% 45.5% 2.20 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wealdstone1.5

Kidderminster Harriers1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WEALDSTONE · PPG 1.31

KIDDERMINSTER HARRIERS · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wealdstone (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.8%

Kidderminster Harriers (A) 31.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wealdstone face Kidderminster Harriers in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wealdstone a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Kidderminster Harriers 31%, so Wealdstone are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wealdstone and 1.3 for Kidderminster Harriers (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wealdstone are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.50 for Kidderminster Harriers.

Wealdstone vs Kidderminster Harriers Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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