Today / England - National League / Tamworth vs Boston United

Tamworth vs Boston United Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Tamworth

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

UPCOMING

Boston United

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.3%0-24.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.9%1-110.5%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.2%3-14.9%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 46.5% 2.15 -9.7%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -12.9%

Away win 34.8% 33.3% 3.00 +4.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Over 3.5 40.5% 42.0% 2.38 -3.6%

BTTS 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Home O1.5 49.5% 54.6% 1.83 -9.4%

Away O1.5 46.0% 44.4% 2.25 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–0 5.8%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tamworth1.7

Boston United1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMWORTH · PPG 1.57

BOSTON UNITED · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tamworth (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.7%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.9%

Boston United (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tamworth face Boston United in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tamworth a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Boston United 35%, so Tamworth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tamworth and 1.5 for Boston United (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tamworth are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.45 for Boston United. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +4.3%.

Tamworth vs Boston United Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League Predictions