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Scunthorpe vs Harrogate Town Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Scunthorpe

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

UPCOMING

Harrogate Town

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+14.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.8%0-23.9%0-32.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.5%1-19.1%1-27.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.3%3-15.4%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.0%4+-23.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

Draw 21.4% 30.3% 3.30 -17.6%

Away win 34.9% 32.3% 3.10 +8.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 59.9% 1.67 +14.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 38.2% 2.62 +17.9%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 52.4% 1.91 +6.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 44.4% 2.25 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Scunthorpe1.9

Harrogate Town1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SCUNTHORPE · PPG 1.80

HARROGATE TOWN · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Scunthorpe (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.0%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.6%

Harrogate Town (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Scunthorpe face Harrogate Town in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Scunthorpe a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Harrogate Town 35%, so Scunthorpe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Scunthorpe and 1.6 for Harrogate Town (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Scunthorpe are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Harrogate Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.9%.

Scunthorpe vs Harrogate Town Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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