Today / England - National League / Southend vs Yeovil Town

Southend vs Yeovil Town Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Southend

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

UPCOMING

Yeovil Town

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.3%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.7%1-26.7%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 62.5% 1.60 -27.4%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 30.1% 20.0% 5.00 +50.5%

Over 2.5 57.0% 57.8% 1.73 -1.4%

Over 3.5 35.5% 36.4% 2.75 -2.4%

BTTS 55.9% 57.8% 1.73 -3.3%

Home O1.5 48.1% 61.7% 1.62 -22.1%

Away O1.5 33.2% 26.7% 3.75 +24.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 45% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southend1.6

Yeovil Town1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHEND · PPG 1.73

YEOVIL TOWN · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Southend (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -27.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Yeovil Town (A) 30.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +50.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southend face Yeovil Town in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southend a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Yeovil Town 30%, so Southend are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Southend and 1.2 for Yeovil Town (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southend are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.33 for Yeovil Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +46.6%.

Southend vs Yeovil Town Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League Predictions