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Gateshead vs Solihull Moors Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Gateshead

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Solihull Moors

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.7%0-23.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.3%1-110.5%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.6%3-15.8%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.0%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 40.0% 2.50 +19.3%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 28.8% 40.0% 2.50 -16.8%

Over 2.5 60.7% 63.7% 1.57 -4.7%

Over 3.5 37.5% 42.0% 2.38 -10.8%

BTTS 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Home O1.5 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Away O1.5 36.9% 50.0% 2.00 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gateshead1.8

Solihull Moors1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GATESHEAD · PPG 1.25

SOLIHULL MOORS · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

65%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gateshead (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +19.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Solihull Moors (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gateshead face Solihull Moors in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gateshead a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Solihull Moors 29%, so Gateshead are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gateshead and 1.3 for Solihull Moors (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gateshead are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.94 for Solihull Moors. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +20.4%.

Gateshead vs Solihull Moors Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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