Today / England - National League / AFC Hornchurch vs Forest Green

AFC Hornchurch vs Forest Green Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

AFC Hornchurch

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

UPCOMING

Forest Green

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.4%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.7%1-110.3%1-26.1%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.2%3-16.2%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 29.4% 3.40 +78.5%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -12.1%

Away win 24.0% 50.0% 2.00 -31.2%

Over 2.5 60.6% 59.9% 1.67 +1.2%

Over 3.5 37.5% 38.2% 2.62 -1.8%

BTTS 60.8% 64.5% 1.55 -5.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 40.0% 2.50 +39.5%

Away O1.5 34.3% 55.6% 1.80 -38.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.8%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Hornchurch1.9

Forest Green1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC HORNCHURCH · PPG 1.93

FOREST GREEN · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AFC Hornchurch (H) 52.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +78.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.1%

Forest Green (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Hornchurch face Forest Green in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Hornchurch a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Forest Green 24%, so AFC Hornchurch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for AFC Hornchurch and 1.2 for Forest Green (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Hornchurch are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.40 for Forest Green. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +81.2%.

AFC Hornchurch vs Forest Green Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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