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Hartlepool vs Woking Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Hartlepool

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

UPCOMING

Woking

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-19.2%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.2%1-112.7%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-18.8%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.5%3-14.0%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 44.4% 2.25 +0.1%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 28.9% 34.7% 2.88 -10.1%

Over 2.5 48.7% 54.1% 1.85 -9.9%

Over 3.5 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

BTTS 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Home O1.5 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Away O1.5 25.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.9%

H 44% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartlepool1.4

Woking0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTLEPOOL · PPG 1.55

WOKING · PPG 1.02

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.28 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hartlepool (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +0.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Woking (A) 28.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartlepool face Woking in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartlepool a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Woking 29%, so Hartlepool are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hartlepool and 0.9 for Woking (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartlepool are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.02 for Woking.

Hartlepool vs Woking Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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