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Barrow vs Sutton Utd Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Barrow

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

UPCOMING

Sutton Utd

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.8%0-26.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.0%1-112.4%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-17.9%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.4%3-13.3%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 46.5% 2.15 -22.8%

Draw 26.1% 31.3% 3.20 -9.9%

Away win 38.0% 32.3% 3.10 +17.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.8% 61.7% 1.62 -11.2%

Home O1.5 38.4% 50.0% 2.00 -23.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 40.0% 2.50 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.8%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barrow1.3

Sutton Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BARROW · PPG 1.07

SUTTON UTD · PPG 1.68

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barrow (H) 35.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.9%

Sutton Utd (A) 38.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barrow face Sutton Utd in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barrow a 36% chance, the draw 26% and Sutton Utd 38%, so Sutton Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Barrow and 1.4 for Sutton Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barrow are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.68 for Sutton Utd. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +9.7%.

Barrow vs Sutton Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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