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Aldershot Town vs FC Halifax Town Prediction— England - National League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Aldershot Town

PPG 1.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

UPCOMING

FC Halifax Town

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.7%0-24.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.7%1-111.2%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.1%3-15.2%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Draw 24.5% 30.8% 3.25 -12.2%

Away win 30.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 58.8% 1.70 +1.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

BTTS 59.6% 63.7% 1.57 -6.4%

Home O1.5 49.7% 52.4% 1.91 -5.1%

Away O1.5 38.1% 40.0% 2.50 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 35.2%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.6%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aldershot Town1.7

FC Halifax Town1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALDERSHOT TOWN · PPG 1.23

FC HALIFAX TOWN · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aldershot Town (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -0.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.2%

FC Halifax Town (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldershot Town face FC Halifax Town in England - National League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldershot Town a 45% chance, the draw 25% and FC Halifax Town 30%, so Aldershot Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Aldershot Town and 1.3 for FC Halifax Town (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldershot Town are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.04 for FC Halifax Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Aldershot Town vs FC Halifax Town Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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