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Goias vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 23:00

Goias

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

Novorizontino

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-114.7%0-26.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.2%1-113.4%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.9%2-16.1%2-22.7%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 43.1% 2.32 -14.6%

Draw 34.2% 33.6% 2.98 +1.9%

Away win 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

Over 2.5 37.8% 40.8% 2.45 -7.4%

Over 3.5 18.5% 21.1% 4.75 -7.3%

BTTS 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

Home O1.5 33.0% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

Away O1.5 26.6% 29.0% 3.45 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.7%

D 34% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 0–1 14.7%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goias0.9

Novorizontino0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIAS · PPG 2.40

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=36.8%

Win probability 1X2

Goias (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -14.6%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +1.9%

Novorizontino (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goias face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goias a 37% chance, the draw 34% and Novorizontino 29%, so Goias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Goias and 0.9 for Novorizontino (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goias are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.17 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 0-4.

Goias vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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