Today / Brazil - Serie B / Ceara vs Avai

Ceara vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 12 ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 23:00

Ceara

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Avai

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.9%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.2%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-17.9%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.7%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 57.8% 1.73 -20.6%

Draw 29.4% 27.4% 3.65 +4.4%

Away win 24.7% 21.5% 4.65 +8.9%

Over 2.5 47.1% 50.0% 2.00 -5.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 28.2% 3.55 -0.1%

BTTS 47.8% 54.1% 1.85 -11.6%

Home O1.5 41.4% 54.1% 1.85 -23.4%

Away O1.5 25.5% 26.3% 3.80 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.8%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.2

Avai0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.33

AVAI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -20.6%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +4.4%

Avai (A) 24.7%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Avai 25%, so Ceara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ceara and 0.9 for Avai (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Ceara vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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