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Braintree Town vs Rochdale Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Braintree Town

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Rochdale

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-115.9%0-215.1%0-39.5%0-4+7.0%1 1-04.9%1-19.2%1-28.8%1-35.6%1-4+4.1%2 2-01.4%2-12.7%2-22.6%2-31.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.5% 11.4% 8.75 -8.1%

Draw 20.5% 20.0% 5.00 +2.5%

Away win 69.0% 78.1% 1.28 -11.7%

Over 2.5 45.1% 65.4% 1.53 -31.0%

Over 3.5 23.8% 42.6% 2.35 -44.1%

BTTS 37.5% 54.1% 1.85 -30.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob37.5%

A 69% / xG 0.6-1.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.9%

#2 0–2 15.1%

#3 0–3 9.5%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 1–2✓ 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Braintree Town0.6

Rochdale1.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAINTREE TOWN · PPG 1.00

ROCHDALE · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Braintree Town (H) 10.5%

ODDS 8.75 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV -8.1%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.5%

Rochdale (A) 69.0%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Braintree Town face Rochdale in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Braintree Town a 11% chance, the draw 21% and Rochdale 69%, so Rochdale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Braintree Town and 1.9 for Rochdale (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Braintree Town are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.14 for Rochdale. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Braintree Town vs Rochdale Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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