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Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 22:00

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.83 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Cuiaba

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.1%0-123.4%0-29.4%0-32.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-110.1%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-02.7%2-12.2%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.3%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.5% 30.8% 3.25 -22.0%

Draw 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

Away win 44.1% 40.7% 2.46 +8.5%

Over 2.5 21.2% 33.3% 3.00 -21.8%

Over 3.5 12.2% 16.0% 6.25 -14.2%

BTTS 42.9% 44.4% 2.25 -3.5%

Home O1.5 20.0% 25.3% 3.95 -12.6%

Away O1.5 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.9%

A 44% / xG 0.4-0.8 / U2.5 21% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 29.1%

#2 0–1 23.4%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ponte Preta0.4

Cuiaba0.8

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 21.2% · O3.5 PROB 12.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.83

CUIABA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.83) vs Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Ponte Preta (H) 19.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -22.0%

Draw 36.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.9%

Cuiaba (A) 44.1%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ponte Preta face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ponte Preta a 20% chance, the draw 36% and Cuiaba 44%, so Cuiaba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Ponte Preta and 0.8 for Cuiaba (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 21% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ponte Preta are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.20 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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