Today / Brazil - Serie B / Nautico vs Fortaleza

Nautico vs Fortaleza Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 22:00

Nautico

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Fortaleza

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-110.7%0-24.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-112.9%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.9%2-17.8%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% — — —

Draw 29.7% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 47.1% — — —

Over 3.5 28.1% — — —

BTTS 47.8% — — —

Home O1.5 41.6% — — —

Away O1.5 24.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.8%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1✓ 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico1.2

Fortaleza0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO · PPG 1.80

FORTALEZA · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=46.1%

Win probability 1X2

Nautico (H) 46.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortaleza (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico face Fortaleza in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Fortaleza 24%, so Nautico are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nautico and 0.8 for Fortaleza (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.83 for Fortaleza. This match finished 0-1.

Nautico vs Fortaleza Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions