Today / Sweden - Superettan / United Nordic vs Ostersunds

United Nordic vs Ostersunds Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 11 ·Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 17:00

United Nordic

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ostersunds

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+15.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.5%0-23.1%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.3%1-17.6%1-26.7%1-33.9%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.8%3-25.1%3-33.0%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.2%4+-24.6%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 46.5% 2.15 -2.4%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 32.1% 33.3% 3.00 -3.7%

Over 2.5 65.8% 57.1% 1.75 +15.2%

Over 3.5 42.8% 35.1% 2.85 +22.0%

BTTS 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Home O1.5 61.0% 51.3% 1.95 +18.9%

Away O1.5 49.4% 41.7% 2.40 +18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.7%

H 45% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 7.6%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

United Nordic2.2

Ostersunds1.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNITED NORDIC · PPG 2.40

OSTERSUNDS · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=45.4%

Win probability 1X2

United Nordic (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -2.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Ostersunds (A) 32.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

United Nordic face Ostersunds in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives United Nordic a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Ostersunds 32%, so United Nordic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for United Nordic and 1.8 for Ostersunds (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, United Nordic are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Ostersunds. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 1-1.

United Nordic vs Ostersunds Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Superettan Predictions