Today / Sweden - Superettan / Sandviken vs Falkenberg

Sandviken vs Falkenberg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 11 ·Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 17:00

Sandviken

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Falkenberg

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.4%0-28.1%0-34.7%0-4+3.0%1 1-06.4%1-111.1%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.8%2-16.6%2-25.7%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.5%3-12.6%3-22.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 40.8% 2.45 -17.4%

Draw 24.6% 27.8% 3.60 -6.9%

Away win 46.3% 38.5% 2.60 +20.4%

Over 2.5 60.6% 57.1% 1.75 +6.0%

Over 3.5 37.1% 35.1% 2.85 +5.7%

BTTS 60.5% 64.5% 1.55 -6.2%

Home O1.5 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

Away O1.5 49.4% 44.4% 2.25 +11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.5%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandviken1.2

Falkenberg1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDVIKEN · PPG 1.00

FALKENBERG · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sandviken (H) 29.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.9%

Falkenberg (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandviken face Falkenberg in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandviken a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Falkenberg 46%, so Falkenberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sandviken and 1.7 for Falkenberg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandviken are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Falkenberg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.8%. This match finished 4-2.

Sandviken vs Falkenberg Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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