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Oster vs Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 11 ·Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 17:00

Oster

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Varnamo

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.3%0-23.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.3%1-18.9%1-26.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.5%3-16.4%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.4%4+-23.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Draw 22.4% 27.0% 3.70 -10.3%

Away win 27.7% 29.0% 3.45 -2.7%

Over 2.5 64.5% 61.7% 1.62 +4.5%

Over 3.5 42.0% 38.5% 2.60 +9.2%

BTTS 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Home O1.5 61.0% 56.5% 1.77 +8.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.7%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oster2.1

Varnamo1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTER · PPG 2.00

VARNAMO · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.9%

Win probability 1X2

Oster (H) 49.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.3%

Varnamo (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oster face Varnamo in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oster a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Varnamo 28%, so Oster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Oster and 1.4 for Varnamo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oster are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Varnamo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Oster vs Varnamo Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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