Today / Sweden - Superettan / Oddevold vs Norrkoping

Oddevold vs Norrkoping Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 11 ·Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 17:00

Oddevold

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Norrkoping

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.9%0-27.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.8%1-111.3%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.3%2-17.2%2-25.9%2-33.3%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 38.5% 2.60 -10.6%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 41.6% 40.8% 2.45 +1.9%

Over 2.5 60.6% 59.9% 1.67 +1.2%

Over 3.5 37.1% 37.7% 2.65 -1.7%

BTTS 60.5% 65.4% 1.53 -7.4%

Home O1.5 41.6% 47.6% 2.10 -12.6%

Away O1.5 49.4% 48.8% 2.05 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.5%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2✓ 9.3%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oddevold1.3

Norrkoping1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ODDEVOLD · PPG 1.60

NORRKOPING · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Oddevold (H) 34.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -10.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Norrkoping (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oddevold face Norrkoping in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oddevold a 34% chance, the draw 24% and Norrkoping 42%, so Norrkoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Oddevold and 1.7 for Norrkoping (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oddevold are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.67 for Norrkoping. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Oddevold vs Norrkoping Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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