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Brage vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 11 ·Tuesday, June 9, 2026, 17:00

Brage

PPG 0.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ljungskile

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.1%0-25.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.2%1-111.0%1-28.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 39.2% 2.55 +1.7%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 35.6% 39.2% 2.55 -9.2%

Over 2.5 60.6% 57.1% 1.75 +6.0%

Over 3.5 37.1% 35.7% 2.80 +3.9%

BTTS 61.6% 64.5% 1.55 -4.5%

Home O1.5 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Away O1.5 49.4% 46.5% 2.15 +6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -1.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2✓ 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brage1.5

Ljungskile1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BRAGE · PPG 0.50

LJUNGSKILE · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Brage (H) 39.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +1.7%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Ljungskile (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brage face Ljungskile in Sweden - Superettan on Tuesday, June 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brage a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Ljungskile 36%, so Brage are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Brage and 1.5 for Ljungskile (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brage are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Ljungskile. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Brage vs Ljungskile Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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