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Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, June 8, 2026, 23:00

Vila Nova

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Botafogo SP

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-110.3%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.5%1-112.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-17.7%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 51.0% 1.96 -3.2%

Draw 29.7% 31.7% 3.15 -3.9%

Away win 20.9% 24.4% 4.10 -8.6%

Over 2.5 37.1% 42.6% 2.35 -12.8%

Over 3.5 19.3% 22.2% 4.50 -7.9%

BTTS 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Home O1.5 46.9% 44.4% 2.25 +5.5%

Away O1.5 27.9% 25.3% 3.95 +6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.4%

H 49% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.4%

#2 1–0✓ 17.5%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova1.2

Botafogo SP0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.20

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=49.4%

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -3.2%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -3.9%

Botafogo SP (A) 20.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, June 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 49% chance, the draw 30% and Botafogo SP 21%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vila Nova and 0.7 for Botafogo SP (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.83 for Botafogo SP. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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