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Jarfalla vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 11 ·Monday, June 8, 2026, 17:30

Jarfalla

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Stocksund

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.1%0-22.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.0%1-17.4%1-25.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.0%3-25.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-17.4%4+-25.5%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 58.8% 1.70 -7.5%

Draw 21.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.8%

Away win 24.1% 27.0% 3.70 -6.5%

Over 2.5 65.4% 76.9% 1.30 -15.0%

Over 3.5 46.3% 56.5% 1.77 -18.1%

BTTS 63.6% 76.9% 1.30 -17.3%

Home O1.5 68.8% 72.5% 1.38 -5.1%

Away O1.5 44.6% 50.0% 2.00 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.6%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jarfalla2.4

Stocksund1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JARFALLA · PPG 1.50

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

Jarfalla (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -7.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.8%

Stocksund (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jarfalla face Stocksund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Monday, June 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jarfalla a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Stocksund 24%, so Jarfalla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Jarfalla and 1.5 for Stocksund (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jarfalla are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Stocksund. This match finished 1-6.

Jarfalla vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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