Jarfalla vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Sweden - Ettan - Norra Norra - 11 Jarfallavallen Monday, June 8, 2026 17:30

Jarfalla PPG 1.50

VS PENDING

Stocksund PPG 0.25

HomeO15· -5.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Jarfalla face Stocksund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Monday, June 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jarfalla a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Stocksund 24%, so Jarfalla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Jarfalla and 1.5 for Stocksund (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jarfalla are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.25 for Stocksund.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.4%

Odds: 1.70 EV: -7.5%

Draw 21.5%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -5.8%

Away 24.1%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -6.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.4% Odds: 1.30 -15.0%

Over 3.5 46.3% Odds: 1.77 -18.1%

BTTS 63.6% Odds: 1.30 -17.3%

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1

2nd 1-1

3rd 3-1

4th 2-2

5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Jarfalla

2.39

Stocksund

1.47

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -15.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -15.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5/Under 63%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -25.3%

Bet Hit 42% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=54.4%