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Haverfordwest vs Llanelli Town Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Relegation Group - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:15

Haverfordwest

PPG 1.53 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Llanelli Town

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 82.4% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.2%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.3%1-15.8%1-21.5%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.9%2-17.7%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.0%3-16.7%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-016.2%4+-18.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.4% 84.7% 1.18 -2.8%

Draw 12.4% 17.9% 5.60 -30.6%

Away win 5.1% 8.3% 12.00 -38.8%

Over 2.5 61.0% 67.6% 1.48 -9.7%

Over 3.5 38.7% 45.5% 2.20 -14.9%

BTTS 37.5% 50.0% 2.00 -25.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 83%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob37.5%

H 82% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 4–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haverfordwest2.6

Llanelli Town0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HAVERFORDWEST · PPG 1.53

LLANELLI TOWN · PPG 0.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.53), Away POOR (0.53) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Haverfordwest (H) 82.4%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -2.8%

Draw 12.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -30.6%

Llanelli Town (A) 5.1%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV -38.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haverfordwest face Llanelli Town in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haverfordwest a 82% chance, the draw 12% and Llanelli Town 5%, so Haverfordwest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Haverfordwest and 0.5 for Llanelli Town (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haverfordwest are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.53 for Llanelli Town. This match finished 6-0.

Haverfordwest vs Llanelli Town Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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