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The New Saints vs Barry Town Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:15

The New Saints

PPG 2.44 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Barry Town

PPG 1.96 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.0%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.5%1-19.9%1-25.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.5%3-16.5%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-15.0%4+-23.0%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 78.1% 1.28 -31.8%

Draw 21.7% 20.0% 5.00 +5.1%

Away win 25.0% 11.9% 8.40 +66.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 44.8% 42.6% 2.35 +5.3%

BTTS 61.5% 54.1% 1.85 +13.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 75.2% 1.33 -25.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 22.2% 4.50 +49.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The New Saints2.0

Barry Town1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

THE NEW SAINTS · PPG 2.44

BARRY TOWN · PPG 1.96

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

The New Saints (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -31.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.1%

Barry Town (A) 25.0%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +66.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

The New Saints face Barry Town in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The New Saints a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Barry Town 25%, so The New Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for The New Saints and 1.2 for Barry Town (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The New Saints are averaging 2.44 points per game versus 1.96 for Barry Town. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +111.9%.

The New Saints vs Barry Town Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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