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Penybont vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Penybont

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDD

UPCOMING

Colwyn Bay

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+10.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.7%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.4%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.4%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 46.5% 2.15 +7.9%

Draw 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -14.6%

Away win 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -9.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 28.6% 3.50 +10.6%

BTTS 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Home O1.5 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 27.4% 28.6% 3.50 -2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 34.2%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.8%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penybont1.6

Colwyn Bay1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PENYBONT · PPG 1.53

COLWYN BAY · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Penybont (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +7.9%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.6%

Colwyn Bay (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Penybont face Colwyn Bay in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penybont a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Colwyn Bay 25%, so Penybont are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Penybont and 1.0 for Colwyn Bay (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penybont are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.01 for Colwyn Bay. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.6%.

Penybont vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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