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CRB vs Sao Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 19:00

CRB

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sao Bernardo

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-112.5%0-29.9%0-35.2%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.5%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.6%2-15.7%2-24.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 55.2% 1.81 -28.7%

Draw 25.2% 28.6% 3.50 -7.1%

Away win 46.0% 22.7% 4.40 +102.4%

Over 2.5 48.8% 50.0% 2.00 -2.4%

Over 3.5 29.1% 28.6% 3.50 +1.1%

BTTS 52.2% 54.6% 1.83 -4.5%

Home O1.5 35.7% 51.8% 1.93 -31.1%

Away O1.5 44.6% 28.2% 3.55 +58.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 179 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.2%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CRB1.0

Sao Bernardo1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CRB · PPG 1.20

SAO BERNARDO · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

54%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

CRB (H) 28.8%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -28.7%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.1%

Sao Bernardo (A) 46.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +102.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CRB face Sao Bernardo in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CRB a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Sao Bernardo 46%, so Sao Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for CRB and 1.6 for Sao Bernardo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CRB are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.60 for Sao Bernardo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +102.4%. This match finished 2-3.

CRB vs Sao Bernardo Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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