Today / Wales - Premier League / Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay

Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Championship Group - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:15

Connahs Quay

PPG 1.87 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Colwyn Bay

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.2%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.8%1-111.8%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.2%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 55.6% 1.80 -6.4%

Draw 24.7% 27.4% 3.65 -9.8%

Away win 23.2% 27.0% 3.70 -14.2%

Over 2.5 48.8% 60.6% 1.65 -19.5%

Over 3.5 27.0% 38.5% 2.60 -29.8%

BTTS 50.8% 64.5% 1.55 -21.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 83%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.8%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.8%

#2 1–1✓ 11.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Connahs Quay1.6

Colwyn Bay1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CONNAHS QUAY · PPG 1.87

COLWYN BAY · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Connahs Quay (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -6.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.8%

Colwyn Bay (A) 23.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Connahs Quay face Colwyn Bay in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Connahs Quay a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Colwyn Bay 23%, so Connahs Quay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Connahs Quay and 1.0 for Colwyn Bay (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Connahs Quay are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.40 for Colwyn Bay. This match finished 1-1.

Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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