Connahs Quay vs Colwyn Bay Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Wales - Premier League Championship Group - 32 Essity Stadium· Flint Saturday, April 18, 2026 16:15

Connahs Quay PPG 1.87

1-1 HIT CS2

Colwyn Bay PPG 1.40

Home· -6.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Connahs Quay face Colwyn Bay in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Connahs Quay a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Colwyn Bay 23%, so Connahs Quay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Connahs Quay and 1.0 for Colwyn Bay (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Connahs Quay are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.40 for Colwyn Bay. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.0%

Odds: 1.80 EV: -6.4%

Draw 24.7%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -9.8%

Away 23.2%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -14.2%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.8% Odds: 1.65 -19.5%

Over 3.5 27.0% Odds: 2.60 -29.8%

BTTS 50.8% Odds: 1.55 -21.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Connahs Quay

1.63

Colwyn Bay

1.00

Model SuggestionHome -6.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -6.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)