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Chaco For Ever vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 19:00

Chaco For Ever

PPG 0.86 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Ferro Carril

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-120.4%0-210.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.9%1-112.0%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-03.5%2-13.6%2-21.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.7%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% 30.3% 3.30 -15.4%

Draw 35.2% 35.7% 2.80 -1.4%

Away win 42.4% 44.4% 2.25 -4.6%

Over 2.5 33.0% 33.9% 2.95 -2.6%

Over 3.5 16.8% 15.4% 6.50 +5.5%

BTTS 44.2% 44.4% 2.25 -0.5%

Home O1.5 33.3% 25.3% 3.95 +31.5%

Away O1.5 31.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.2%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 0–1 20.4%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 0–2 10.3%

#5 1–0 11.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chaco For Ever0.6

Ferro Carril1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 16.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHACO FOR EVER · PPG 0.86

FERRO CARRIL · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Chaco For Ever (H) 22.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.4%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -1.4%

Ferro Carril (A) 42.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chaco For Ever face Ferro Carril in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chaco For Ever a 23% chance, the draw 35% and Ferro Carril 42%, so Ferro Carril are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Chaco For Ever and 1.0 for Ferro Carril (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chaco For Ever are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 2.00 for Ferro Carril. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +31.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Chaco For Ever vs Ferro Carril Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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