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Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 28 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 20:00

Nueva Chicago

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

UPCOMING

Quilmes

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.7%0-111.5%0-23.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.7%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.1%2-17.0%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.6%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 38.2% 2.62 +5.9%

Draw 31.1% 36.4% 2.75 -14.5%

Away win 28.5% 34.5% 2.90 -10.4%

Over 2.5 35.9% 37.0% 2.70 -3.1%

Over 3.5 18.3% 18.2% 5.50 +0.4%

BTTS 42.4% 46.5% 2.15 -8.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 28.6% 3.50 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 301 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -4.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.7%

#2 1–0 18.4%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nueva Chicago1.1

Quilmes0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NUEVA CHICAGO · PPG 1.46

QUILMES · PPG 0.54

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

42%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 1.79 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nueva Chicago (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +5.9%

Draw 31.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.5%

Quilmes (A) 28.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nueva Chicago face Quilmes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nueva Chicago a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Quilmes 28%, so Nueva Chicago are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nueva Chicago and 0.7 for Quilmes (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nueva Chicago are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.54 for Quilmes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.0%.

Nueva Chicago vs Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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