Today / Argentina - Primera Nacional / CA Guemes vs Deportivo Maipu

CA Guemes vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 19:00

CA Guemes

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-112.3%0-28.3%0-33.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.5%1-112.9%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.0%2-16.7%2-24.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.7%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 40.8% 2.45 -17.5%

Draw 28.2% 37.0% 2.70 -14.3%

Away win 42.9% 31.3% 3.20 +37.3%

Over 2.5 48.7% 34.7% 2.88 +40.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 18.2% 5.50 +32.7%

BTTS 52.0% 47.6% 2.10 +9.2%

Home O1.5 37.4% 33.3% 3.00 +12.2%

Away O1.5 32.0% 26.7% 3.75 +20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.0%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Guemes1.0

Deportivo Maipu1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CA GUEMES · PPG 1.38

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

CA Guemes (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -17.5%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.3%

Deportivo Maipu (A) 42.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +37.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Guemes face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Guemes a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Maipu 43%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for CA Guemes and 1.3 for Deportivo Maipu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Guemes are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Deportivo Maipu. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.0%. This match finished 1-0.

CA Guemes vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera Nacional Predictions