CA Guemes vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Argentina - Primera Nacional Regular Season - 17 Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda· Santiago del Estero Sunday, June 7, 2026 19:00

CA Guemes PPG 1.38

VS PENDING

Deportivo Maipu PPG 0.75

Away + Over 2.5· +44.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Guemes face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Guemes a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo Maipu 43%, so Deportivo Maipu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for CA Guemes and 1.3 for Deportivo Maipu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Guemes are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Deportivo Maipu. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +44.0%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 28.9%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -17.5%

Draw 28.2%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -14.3%

Away 42.9%

Odds: 3.20 EV: +37.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.7% Odds: 2.88 +40.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 5.50 +32.7%

BTTS 52.0% Odds: 2.10 +9.2%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 0-0

3rd 0-1

4th 1-2

5th 0-2

Expected Goals (xG)

CA Guemes

1.05

Deportivo Maipu

1.35

Model SuggestionBTTS +9.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is +9.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away + Over 2.5 (+44.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 105 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5/Under 75%

BTTS/No 67%

Score Hit 73%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 47% (17 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

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Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.75)