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Agropecuario vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 19:00

Agropecuario

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Patronato

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.3%0-115.9%0-24.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-111.2%1-23.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-13.9%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.6%3-10.9%3-20.3%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 51.3% 1.95 -29.4%

Draw 36.5% 29.9% 3.35 +22.3%

Away win 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Over 2.5 22.9% 34.7% 2.88 -20.4%

Over 3.5 12.3% 16.7% 6.00 -15.7%

BTTS 44.2% 45.5% 2.20 -2.8%

Home O1.5 33.7% 38.2% 2.62 -11.7%

Away O1.5 19.3% 22.2% 4.50 -7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.2%

D 36% / xG 0.7-0.6 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 28.3%

#2 1–0 19.8%

#3 0–1 15.9%

#4 1–1✓ 11.2%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Agropecuario0.7

Patronato0.6

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 22.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AGROPECUARIO · PPG 1.38

PATRONATO · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Agropecuario (H) 36.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -29.4%

Draw 36.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +22.3%

Patronato (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Agropecuario face Patronato in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Agropecuario a 36% chance, the draw 37% and Patronato 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Agropecuario and 0.6 for Patronato (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Agropecuario are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Patronato. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Agropecuario vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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