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San Telmo vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 18:00

San Telmo

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

D. Madryn

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-116.3%0-28.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.7%1-113.3%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.2%2-15.4%2-22.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 38.2% 2.62 -13.9%

Draw 35.0% 36.4% 2.75 -3.8%

Away win 35.6% 34.7% 2.88 +2.5%

Over 2.5 37.1% 38.5% 2.60 -3.5%

Over 3.5 19.1% 18.2% 5.50 +3.0%

BTTS 47.5% 47.6% 2.10 -0.3%

Home O1.5 33.7% 30.8% 3.25 +9.5%

Away O1.5 32.0% 29.4% 3.40 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.5%

D 35% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.6%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.3%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Telmo0.8

D. Madryn1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN TELMO · PPG 1.25

D. MADRYN · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

San Telmo (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.9%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -3.8%

D. Madryn (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Telmo face D. Madryn in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Telmo a 29% chance, the draw 35% and D. Madryn 36%, so D. Madryn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for San Telmo and 1.0 for D. Madryn (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Telmo are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.38 for D. Madryn. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 0-0.

San Telmo vs D. Madryn Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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