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Deportivo Moron vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Almirante Brown

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.8%0-111.3%0-22.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.3%1-110.6%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.9%2-15.0%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.4%3-11.6%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 56.5% 1.77 -16.3%

Draw 33.2% 34.7% 2.88 -4.4%

Away win 19.5% 18.5% 5.40 +3.2%

Over 2.5 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Over 3.5 12.3% 12.5% 8.00 -1.0%

BTTS 44.2% 38.5% 2.60 +14.9%

Home O1.5 34.4% 36.4% 2.75 -5.4%

Away O1.5 13.2% 14.3% 7.00 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.2%

H 47% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.8%

#2 1–0✓ 23.3%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron0.9

Almirante Brown0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 22.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.50

ALMIRANTE BROWN · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=47.3%

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -16.3%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -4.4%

Almirante Brown (A) 19.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face Almirante Brown in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 47% chance, the draw 33% and Almirante Brown 20%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Deportivo Moron and 0.5 for Almirante Brown (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.13 for Almirante Brown. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Moron vs Almirante Brown Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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