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Cardiff MU vs Flint Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Relegation Group - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:15

Cardiff MU

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Flint

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.4%0-24.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.8%1-19.6%1-27.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.0%3-15.0%3-24.1%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 37.0% 2.70 +11.0%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -23.5%

Away win 36.3% 43.5% 2.30 -16.5%

Over 2.5 66.4% 56.5% 1.77 +17.5%

Over 3.5 44.6% 33.9% 2.95 +31.6%

BTTS 67.0% 62.5% 1.60 +7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 83%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob67.0%

H 41% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2✓ 7.0%

#5 1–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cardiff MU1.8

Flint1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CARDIFF MU · PPG 1.13

FLINT · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Cardiff MU (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +11.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.5%

Flint (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cardiff MU face Flint in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cardiff MU a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Flint 36%, so Cardiff MU are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cardiff MU and 1.7 for Flint (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cardiff MU are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.33 for Flint. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Cardiff MU vs Flint Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - Premier League Predictions