Caernarfon vs Penybont Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Wales - Premier League Championship Group - 32 The Oval· Caernarfon Saturday, April 18, 2026 16:15

Caernarfon PPG 1.20

2-0 HIT CS3

Penybont PPG 1.33

Over3.5· +27.3% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Caernarfon face Penybont in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caernarfon a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Penybont 25%, so Caernarfon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Caernarfon and 1.4 for Penybont (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caernarfon are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Penybont. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.4%

Odds: 1.95 EV: +6.1%

Draw 20.9%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -26.9%

Away 24.7%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -19.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.9% Odds: 1.70 +15.4%

Over 3.5 46.3% Odds: 2.75 +27.3%

BTTS 65.9% Odds: 1.57 +3.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✔

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Caernarfon

2.12

Penybont

1.38

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +15.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+27.3%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.33)