Today / Wales - Premier League / Caernarfon vs Penybont

Caernarfon vs Penybont Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Championship Group - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:15

Caernarfon

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Penybont

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+15.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.2%0-22.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.4%1-18.8%1-26.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.8%3-16.6%3-24.6%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-15.7%4+-24.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 51.3% 1.95 +6.1%

Draw 20.9% 28.6% 3.50 -26.9%

Away win 24.7% 30.8% 3.25 -19.7%

Over 2.5 67.9% 58.8% 1.70 +15.4%

Over 3.5 46.3% 36.4% 2.75 +27.3%

BTTS 65.9% 63.7% 1.57 +3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 83%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob65.9%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–0✓ 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caernarfon2.1

Penybont1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CAERNARFON · PPG 1.20

PENYBONT · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Caernarfon (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +6.1%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -26.9%

Penybont (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caernarfon face Penybont in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caernarfon a 54% chance, the draw 21% and Penybont 25%, so Caernarfon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Caernarfon and 1.4 for Penybont (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caernarfon are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Penybont. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Caernarfon vs Penybont Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - Premier League Predictions