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Barry vs The New Saints Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Championship Group - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:15

Barry

PPG 1.73 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

The New Saints

PPG 2.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-114.0%0-211.7%0-36.5%0-4+3.9%1 1-06.8%1-111.3%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.2%2 2-02.8%2-14.6%2-23.8%2-32.1%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.2%3-21.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.1% 18.5% 5.40 -2.3%

Draw 24.2% 24.4% 4.10 -0.8%

Away win 57.7% 67.6% 1.48 -14.6%

Over 2.5 45.0% 61.7% 1.62 -27.1%

Over 3.5 23.7% 40.0% 2.50 -40.8%

BTTS 45.0% 59.9% 1.67 -24.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 83%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob45.0%

A 58% / xG 0.8-1.7 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 14.0%

#2 0–2 11.7%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barry0.8

The New Saints1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRY · PPG 1.73

THE NEW SAINTS · PPG 2.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.53) vs Home GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Barry (H) 18.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -2.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.8%

The New Saints (A) 57.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barry face The New Saints in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barry a 18% chance, the draw 24% and The New Saints 58%, so The New Saints are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Barry and 1.7 for The New Saints (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barry are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 2.53 for The New Saints. This match finished 0-1.

Barry vs The New Saints Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - Premier League Predictions