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Bala Town vs Briton Ferry Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Relegation Group - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:15

Bala Town

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Briton Ferry

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.8%0-28.0%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.5%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.2%2-17.0%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 44.4% 2.25 -32.0%

Draw 27.1% 29.4% 3.40 -7.9%

Away win 42.7% 35.7% 2.80 +19.6%

Over 2.5 44.0% 56.5% 1.77 -22.1%

Over 3.5 22.9% 33.9% 2.95 -32.4%

BTTS 49.1% 62.5% 1.60 -21.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 83%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.1%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–1 11.8%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 1–2✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bala Town1.1

Briton Ferry1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BALA TOWN · PPG 1.07

BRITON FERRY · PPG 1.53

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.07) vs Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Bala Town (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -32.0%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.9%

Briton Ferry (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bala Town face Briton Ferry in Wales - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bala Town a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Briton Ferry 43%, so Briton Ferry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bala Town and 1.3 for Briton Ferry (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bala Town are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.53 for Briton Ferry. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Bala Town vs Briton Ferry Prediction— Wales - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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