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Tristan Suarez vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 22:00

Tristan Suarez

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Almagro

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-110.0%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.0%1-110.7%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.4%2-15.8%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.5%3-12.1%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 62.5% 1.60 -24.3%

Draw 33.2% 31.3% 3.20 +6.2%

Away win 19.5% 15.6% 6.40 +14.9%

Over 2.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

Over 3.5 12.6% 15.4% 6.50 -10.9%

BTTS 44.2% 38.5% 2.60 +14.9%

Home O1.5 41.2% 47.6% 2.10 -13.5%

Away O1.5 19.3% 11.1% 9.00 +44.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.2%

H 47% / xG 1.1-0.5 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 21.4%

#2 1–0 23.0%

#3 2–0 12.4%

#4 1–1 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tristan Suarez1.1

Almagro0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRISTAN SUAREZ · PPG 1.63

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=47.3%

Win probability 1X2

Tristan Suarez (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -24.3%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +6.2%

Almagro (A) 19.5%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tristan Suarez face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tristan Suarez a 47% chance, the draw 33% and Almagro 20%, so Tristan Suarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tristan Suarez and 0.5 for Almagro (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tristan Suarez are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.63 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +44.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Tristan Suarez vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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