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A. Rafaela vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 19:30

A. Rafaela

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Colegiales

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-024.5%0-111.5%0-22.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-023.0%1-110.7%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.8%2-15.0%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.4%3-11.6%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 52.4% 1.91 -18.4%

Draw 34.1% 34.5% 2.90 -1.1%

Away win 23.2% 23.1% 4.33 +0.3%

Over 2.5 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -17.4%

Over 3.5 12.3% 12.5% 8.00 -1.0%

BTTS 44.2% 39.2% 2.55 +12.7%

Home O1.5 34.2% 38.2% 2.62 -10.4%

Away O1.5 19.3% 19.0% 5.25 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.2%

H 43% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 24.5%

#2 1–0✓ 23.0%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 11.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Rafaela0.9

Colegiales0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 22.9% · O3.5 PROB 12.3%

Form & verdict PPG

A. RAFAELA · PPG 2.13

COLEGIALES · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs P(Home)=42.7%

Win probability 1X2

A. Rafaela (H) 42.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -18.4%

Draw 34.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -1.1%

Colegiales (A) 23.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Rafaela face Colegiales in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Rafaela a 43% chance, the draw 34% and Colegiales 23%, so A. Rafaela are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for A. Rafaela and 0.5 for Colegiales (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Rafaela are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.25 for Colegiales. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 1-0.

A. Rafaela vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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