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Acassuso vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 18:30

Acassuso

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Central Norte

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.6%0-116.0%0-23.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.6%1-110.1%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.5%2-13.2%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.4%3-10.7%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 38.5% 2.60 -2.8%

Draw 37.7% 39.2% 2.55 -3.9%

Away win 24.9% 32.3% 3.10 -13.7%

Over 2.5 22.9% 29.4% 3.40 -13.3%

Over 3.5 10.9% 14.3% 7.00 -14.2%

BTTS 28.6% 41.7% 2.40 -18.8%

Home O1.5 33.6% 28.6% 3.50 +17.6%

Away O1.5 19.3% 25.0% 4.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob28.6%

H 37% / xG 0.6-0.5 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.6%

#2 1–0 20.6%

#3 0–1 16.0%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Acassuso0.6

Central Norte0.5

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 22.9% · O3.5 PROB 10.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ACASSUSO · PPG 1.43

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Acassuso (H) 37.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -2.8%

Draw 37.7%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -3.9%

Central Norte (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Acassuso face Central Norte in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Acassuso a 37% chance, the draw 38% and Central Norte 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Acassuso and 0.5 for Central Norte (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Acassuso are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.89 for Central Norte. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Acassuso vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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