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JJK vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 15:30

JJK

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

PKKU

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.8%0-24.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.5%1-110.9%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 61.7% 1.62 -34.9%

Draw 24.6% 26.3% 3.80 -3.9%

Away win 35.2% 22.7% 4.40 +54.9%

Over 2.5 60.7% 69.4% 1.44 -12.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 47.6% 2.10 -23.1%

BTTS 60.6% 69.4% 1.44 -12.7%

Home O1.5 53.8% 66.7% 1.50 -19.3%

Away O1.5 42.4% 38.2% 2.62 +11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.6%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JJK1.6

PKKU1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JJK · PPG 1.80

PKKU · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

JJK (H) 40.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -34.9%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.9%

PKKU (A) 35.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +54.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

JJK face PKKU in Finland - Ykkönen on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JJK a 40% chance, the draw 25% and PKKU 35%, so JJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for JJK and 1.5 for PKKU (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JJK are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.00 for PKKU. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.9%. This match finished 1-3.

JJK vs PKKU Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

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