Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Gefle vs Hammarby Talang

Gefle vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 14:00

Gefle

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Hammarby Talang

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-17.0%0-28.8%0-37.3%0-4+8.4%1 1-03.0%1-17.5%1-29.4%1-37.9%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.6%2-14.0%2-25.0%2-34.2%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.6%3-11.4%3-21.8%3-31.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.7% 23.8% 4.20 -15.4%

Draw 20.9% 26.3% 3.80 -12.3%

Away win 61.5% 59.5% 1.68 +3.3%

Over 2.5 64.2% 60.6% 1.65 +5.9%

Over 3.5 41.9% 38.5% 2.60 +8.9%

BTTS 61.0% 62.5% 1.60 -2.4%

Home O1.5 41.2% 34.5% 2.90 +19.5%

Away O1.5 68.3% 61.7% 1.62 +10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob61.0%

A 62% / xG 1.1-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 0–2 8.8%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gefle1.1

Hammarby Talang2.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GEFLE · PPG 1.75

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Gefle (H) 17.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -15.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.3%

Hammarby Talang (A) 61.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gefle face Hammarby Talang in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gefle a 18% chance, the draw 21% and Hammarby Talang 62%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Gefle and 2.5 for Hammarby Talang (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gefle are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 3.00 for Hammarby Talang. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Gefle vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions