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Criciuma vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 14:00

Criciuma

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Londrina

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLD

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-17.5%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.7%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 62.5% 1.60 -14.2%

Draw 24.9% 27.4% 3.65 -5.5%

Away win 21.5% 17.2% 5.80 +14.8%

Over 2.5 48.7% 47.6% 2.10 +2.3%

Over 3.5 28.0% 26.3% 3.80 +3.8%

BTTS 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Home O1.5 51.5% 54.1% 1.85 -4.7%

Away O1.5 27.9% 22.2% 4.50 +15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.3%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.9%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Criciuma1.6

Londrina0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CRICIUMA · PPG 2.00

LONDRINA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Win probability 1X2

Criciuma (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -14.2%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.5%

Londrina (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Criciuma face Londrina in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Londrina 22%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Criciuma and 0.8 for Londrina (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Londrina. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Criciuma vs Londrina Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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