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UNA vs ASWH Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Group B - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

UNA

PPG 0.93 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

ASWH

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a clear edge.

+24.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.7%0-22.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.0%1-16.6%1-25.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.1%3-16.8%3-25.6%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-17.6%4+-26.2%4+-33.4%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 55.6% 1.80 +0.8%

Draw 18.9% 26.3% 3.80 -28.2%

Away win 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -15.0%

Over 2.5 78.0% 62.5% 1.60 +24.8%

Over 3.5 59.2% — — —

BTTS 74.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -21.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob74.0%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 6.8%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–1 6.6%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNA2.5

ASWH1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.0% · O3.5 PROB 59.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNA · PPG 0.93

ASWH · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

UNA (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +0.8%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -28.2%

ASWH (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNA face ASWH in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNA a 56% chance, the draw 19% and ASWH 25%, so UNA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for UNA and 1.6 for ASWH (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNA are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.79 for ASWH. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 2-0.

UNA vs ASWH Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Sunday

Match Preview & Prediction

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